Agricultural and fishery exports to China are most affected
Information from ttvn.toquoc.vn, according to the preliminary assessment of ANZ Bank, Vietnam is one of the Asian markets that have been negatively impacted on exports to China (after Taiwan), with an estimated loss of 0.44 percentage point of GDP when exported to China by 20% in the next 3 months.
In the structure of exports to China, agricultural and fishery products account for a large proportion (about 20%) of total exports to China, exports to China, especially agricultural and forestry products. -Fish … will still be difficult.
In the opposite direction, in the structure of Vietnam’s imports from China, a lot of goods are raw materials and fuel inputs for a number of key production and export industries of Vietnam. In 2019, Vietnam imported 11.52 billion USD of textiles and footwear from China, accounting for 47.74% of total import turnover of these items of Vietnam. Similarly, China is the largest supplier of chemicals and chemical products; plastic materials and plastic products for Vietnam, respectively, reached US $ 3.23 billion (accounting for 30.6% of the total turnover of this item) and US $ 3.99 billion (accounting for 25.7% of the total turnover of this product). This shows that some of Vietnam’s major export and production industries, which heavily depend on input materials from China, will be negatively affected (especially in Q1 and Q2 / 2020) because lack of input materials, supply chain disruptions (while inventory and alternative sources are limited).
Impacts on domestic retail activities (personal consumption): nCoV is expected to have a two-way impact, but more negative effects. Firstly, the disease will affect people’s psychology, whereby people will tend to defend, save, limit spending, affect purchasing power, causing personal consumption (equivalent to 74). % Of Vietnam’s GDP in 2018) is forecast to decrease in the short term. Secondly, the disease will affect the consumption of individuals and households when festivals, gatherings are stopped or narrowed, especially after Tet; including many festivals attracting millions of tourists. This will directly affect a number of service and business industries that directly serve festivals (dining, transportation, tourism, travel … etc), thereby affecting the retail and consumption sectors. use the service.
Information from ttvn.toquoc.vn, according to the preliminary assessment of ANZ Bank, Vietnam is one of the Asian markets that have been negatively impacted on exports to China (after Taiwan), with an estimated loss of 0.44 percentage point of GDP when exported to China by 20% in the next 3 months.
In the structure of exports to China, agricultural and fishery products account for a large proportion (about 20%) of total exports to China, exports to China, especially agricultural and forestry products. -Fish … will still be difficult.
In the opposite direction, in the structure of Vietnam’s imports from China, a lot of goods are raw materials and fuel inputs for a number of key production and export industries of Vietnam. In 2019, Vietnam imported 11.52 billion USD of textiles and footwear from China, accounting for 47.74% of total import turnover of these items of Vietnam. Similarly, China is the largest supplier of chemicals and chemical products; plastic materials and plastic products for Vietnam, respectively, reached US $ 3.23 billion (accounting for 30.6% of the total turnover of this item) and US $ 3.99 billion (accounting for 25.7% of the total turnover of this product). This shows that some of Vietnam’s major export and production industries, which heavily depend on input materials from China, will be negatively affected (especially in Q1 and Q2 / 2020) because lack of input materials, supply chain disruptions (while inventory and alternative sources are limited).
Impacts on domestic retail activities (personal consumption): nCoV is expected to have a two-way impact, but more negative effects. Firstly, the disease will affect people’s psychology, whereby people will tend to defend, save, limit spending, affect purchasing power, causing personal consumption (equivalent to 74). % Of Vietnam’s GDP in 2018) is forecast to decrease in the short term. Secondly, the disease will affect the consumption of individuals and households when festivals, gatherings are stopped or narrowed, especially after Tet; including many festivals attracting millions of tourists. This will directly affect a number of service and business industries that directly serve festivals (dining, transportation, tourism, travel … etc), thereby affecting the retail and consumption sectors. use the service.
Impacts on supply chain manufacturing industries: The nCoV epidemic affects supply chain manufacturing industries in Vietnam in two respects. Firstly, Vietnam is integrating deeply and deeply into many manufacturing industries following the supply chain model such as phones, electronics, computers, textiles, footwear, manufacturing and processing agricultural products, cars – motorbikes. , iron – steel, petrochemical refinery, retail … (are the main export industries, create many jobs in Vietnam), are affected by this disease, due to lack of input supply as well as export. The output port is blocked, reduced.
Many FDI enterprises in Vietnam in the above industries are also affected. Some big FDI enterprises such as Samsung, LG, Formosa, Apple, Toyota, Honda … etc. facing two major difficulties: (i) lack of input supplies imported from China, and (ii) lack of labor force due to blockade, quarantine or travel restrictions for workers and experts from China. Quoc. These impacts are quite large, negatively affecting Vietnam’s exports, employment and consumption.
Many FDI enterprises in Vietnam in the above industries are also affected. Some big FDI enterprises such as Samsung, LG, Formosa, Apple, Toyota, Honda … etc. facing two major difficulties: (i) lack of input supplies imported from China, and (ii) lack of labor force due to blockade, quarantine or travel restrictions for workers and experts from China. Quoc. These impacts are quite large, negatively affecting Vietnam’s exports, employment and consumption.
Seafood export to China stopped
Ndh.vn reported that, according to VASEP, due to the impact of acute respiratory infections caused by the new strain of Corona virus, seafood export to China stopped, dragging the total seafood export turnover in January 2020. $ 644 million, down 12.5% over the same period in 2019.
VASEP forecasts that seafood exporters can still receive new contracts, but the number will decrease. Stopped or reduced Chinese restaurant systems will affect Vietnam’s seafood exports. Currently, a number of businesses exporting seafood to China are in inventory. The cost of freezing storage is not small, whether the business has a cold storage or has to rent.
However, Mr. Truong Dinh Hoe, General Secretary of VASEP, said that the impact of Corona epidemic on seafood export in the first months of the year was not too serious, because normally, at the earliest, it must be after March and April. year, Chinese seafood import orders have just started to increase.
Mr. Ho Quoc Luc, Chairman of Sao Ta Food Joint Stock Company, said that at present, it is not known how long the nCoV epidemic will last to assess the impact on the shrimp industry. If nCoV is controlled in the next few months, the Vietnamese shrimp industry will not have a big impact, because it has not entered the main crop yet.
China is one of the four largest seafood export markets of Vietnam, accounting for 16-17% of total seafood export turnover, so the developments from this big market and the disease situation need to continue. be monitored to make closer comments and promptly seek solutions.
Solution:
Preparing to produce frozen, canned goods, because when there is an epidemic, people’s eating habits and culture will change, many customers will turn to canned food instead of fresh produce. Some Chinese exports that compete directly with Vietnamese goods (such as tuna) are falling sharply. US-China trade tensions have led the United States to raise taxes on goods imported from China, including seafood, creating opportunities for supply from other markets to the US, including Vietnam.
At the same time, there will be many big events in 2020 such as the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games, Euro 2020 finals, boosting seafood consumption demand in Japan and European countries, especially shrimp, Therefore, the demand for shrimp is expected to increase, creating opportunities for shrimp exporters around the world. The outbreak of Corona outbreak in China will cause many major markets to reduce imports from China. Vietnam seafood enterprises can take advantage of this opportunity to increase exports to the US, Japan, South Korea and European countries. Especially, when exports show unfavorable signals, it should focus on increasing market share right in the domestic market.
VASEP forecasts that seafood exporters can still receive new contracts, but the number will decrease. Stopped or reduced Chinese restaurant systems will affect Vietnam’s seafood exports. Currently, a number of businesses exporting seafood to China are in inventory. The cost of freezing storage is not small, whether the business has a cold storage or has to rent.
However, Mr. Truong Dinh Hoe, General Secretary of VASEP, said that the impact of Corona epidemic on seafood export in the first months of the year was not too serious, because normally, at the earliest, it must be after March and April. year, Chinese seafood import orders have just started to increase.
Mr. Ho Quoc Luc, Chairman of Sao Ta Food Joint Stock Company, said that at present, it is not known how long the nCoV epidemic will last to assess the impact on the shrimp industry. If nCoV is controlled in the next few months, the Vietnamese shrimp industry will not have a big impact, because it has not entered the main crop yet.
China is one of the four largest seafood export markets of Vietnam, accounting for 16-17% of total seafood export turnover, so the developments from this big market and the disease situation need to continue. be monitored to make closer comments and promptly seek solutions.
Solution:
Preparing to produce frozen, canned goods, because when there is an epidemic, people’s eating habits and culture will change, many customers will turn to canned food instead of fresh produce. Some Chinese exports that compete directly with Vietnamese goods (such as tuna) are falling sharply. US-China trade tensions have led the United States to raise taxes on goods imported from China, including seafood, creating opportunities for supply from other markets to the US, including Vietnam.
At the same time, there will be many big events in 2020 such as the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games, Euro 2020 finals, boosting seafood consumption demand in Japan and European countries, especially shrimp, Therefore, the demand for shrimp is expected to increase, creating opportunities for shrimp exporters around the world. The outbreak of Corona outbreak in China will cause many major markets to reduce imports from China. Vietnam seafood enterprises can take advantage of this opportunity to increase exports to the US, Japan, South Korea and European countries. Especially, when exports show unfavorable signals, it should focus on increasing market share right in the domestic market.
Dragon fruit is congested due to corona disease
According to vietnambiz.vn, dragon fruits in Binh Thuan are facing difficulties due to the coronary disease, currently 6 units such as Big C, VinMart, Lotte Mart, Co.op Mart … have announced that they will buy Binh Thuan dragon fruits. with an expected quantity of 120 tons / day.
In addition, the Department of Industry and Trade of Ho Chi Minh City, Business Association of Ho Chi Minh City are also introducing 3 wholesale markets of Binh Dien, Thu Mon and Hoc Mon, member businesses to support the consumption of Binh Thuan dragon fruits.
In the province, in recent days, a number of official dragon fruit export companies to China, Malaysia, Thailand and India have bought and stored dragon fruits with over 1,000 tons such as Son Thuy Co., Ltd., Import and Export Co., Ltd. Nguyen Thuan Agricultural Products Import Export Co., Ltd. Kien Kien Import Export …
Meanwhile, the total output of dragon fruits to be harvested in February of the whole province is 44,586 tons, specifically, from February 5 to February 9, more than 19,300 tons must be harvested; from 10/2 to 16/2 harvested about 7,000 tons; from February 17 to February 23 about 8,000 tons and February 24 to February 29 about 10,250 tons. And at the northern border gates, Binh Thuan has 500 dragon fruit vehicles waiting for clearance.
In addition, the Department of Industry and Trade of Ho Chi Minh City, Business Association of Ho Chi Minh City are also introducing 3 wholesale markets of Binh Dien, Thu Mon and Hoc Mon, member businesses to support the consumption of Binh Thuan dragon fruits.
In the province, in recent days, a number of official dragon fruit export companies to China, Malaysia, Thailand and India have bought and stored dragon fruits with over 1,000 tons such as Son Thuy Co., Ltd., Import and Export Co., Ltd. Nguyen Thuan Agricultural Products Import Export Co., Ltd. Kien Kien Import Export …
Meanwhile, the total output of dragon fruits to be harvested in February of the whole province is 44,586 tons, specifically, from February 5 to February 9, more than 19,300 tons must be harvested; from 10/2 to 16/2 harvested about 7,000 tons; from February 17 to February 23 about 8,000 tons and February 24 to February 29 about 10,250 tons. And at the northern border gates, Binh Thuan has 500 dragon fruit vehicles waiting for clearance.
Many Chinese border markets are closed
According to tuoitre.vn, the Guangxi provincial government decided to extend the time to close the border markets, and continue to suspend the exchange of goods for border residents, firstly until the end of February.
As for the government of Yunnan Province (China), there is currently no official information, but given the complicated developments of the acute pneumonia epidemic caused by the new strain of corona virus (nCoV), it is likely that the provincial government of Van Nam will also make the same decision. Previously, many container trucks carrying agricultural products of Vietnam exported to China via official channels and exchange of border residents were congested due to the impact of the disease.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade decided that the decision to extend the closure of border markets and suspend the exchange of goods for border residents of the governments of Guangxi and Yunnan provinces is expected to have significant influence. to the export of these agricultural products.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade will direct its licensing offices in localities to give priority to certificates of origin (C / O) for lots of goods ready for official shift. At the same time, coordinate with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development in seeking new markets.
The ministry also recommends logistics businesses, especially cold storage, to continue supporting agricultural businesses by prioritizing the preservation of agricultural products that are facing difficulties in exporting to China. , reduce storage costs, warehousing, transport costs, loading and unloading …
The distribution businesses, trade centers, supermarkets … continue to support farmers to consume agricultural products that are facing difficulties such as dragon fruits and watermelons.
Dairy exports have not been affected much
According to vietnambiz.vn, Mr. Tran Quang Trung, President of Vietnam Dairy Association, said that Vietnam’s milk, in particular TH True Milk, has been exported official milk to China since the fourth quarter of last year, so the quantity is not large enough. seriously affected.
Although Vinamilk and Nutifood are not allowed to export official milk to China, some products such as yogurt are exported to this market by sea so they are not affected. However, the issue of consumption in the Chinese domestic market may be reduced due to the difficulty of the people in traveling.
However, businesses have not reflected anything about the difficulties in this market. But if you go upstairs, the corona virus disease outbreak in China will surely affect the general situation.
Representative of the Vietnam Dairy Association said that in the coming time, businesses need to boost milk consumption in the domestic market: “Enterprises need to promote milk consumption in the domestic market. For example, increasing communication about yogurt products has a good effect on resistance ”.
Source: VITIC
Although Vinamilk and Nutifood are not allowed to export official milk to China, some products such as yogurt are exported to this market by sea so they are not affected. However, the issue of consumption in the Chinese domestic market may be reduced due to the difficulty of the people in traveling.
However, businesses have not reflected anything about the difficulties in this market. But if you go upstairs, the corona virus disease outbreak in China will surely affect the general situation.
Representative of the Vietnam Dairy Association said that in the coming time, businesses need to boost milk consumption in the domestic market: “Enterprises need to promote milk consumption in the domestic market. For example, increasing communication about yogurt products has a good effect on resistance ”.
Source: VITIC
